Process-based climate change assessment for European winds using EURO-CORDEX and global models

Abstract Wind energy is an important pillar of decarbonization strategies and potentially vulnerable to climate change. Existing wind change assessments rely on models but a systematic investigation the global-to-regional modeling chain missing. In this study, I highlight key limitations, namely (a) differing representation land use in global regional which compromises comparability, (b) consistency large-scale features along chain. To end, analyze large European Coordinated Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) ensemble (rcp85: N = 49; rcp45: 18; rcp26: 22) with driving 7; 5; 7), finding evidence that reduces mean speeds by up −0.8 m s −1 (offshore) −0.3 (onshore). provide physical explanations for these changes identifying two drivers. First, onshore drop regions scenarios strong show no EURO-CORDEX where held constant. Second, offshore reductions follow decreases equator-to-pole temperature gradient remarkably well correlations reaching around 0.9 resource-rich countries like Ireland, United Kingdom Norway, implying arctic amplification severe risk energy. My results suggest earlier conclusions negligible impacts might be premature if either strongly or polar at above range sampled models.